Astros out in Front: Ratings, Projections, Observations and Good Links for May 11

RPScore Top 5

The Yankees might be red-hot right now, but it's the Astros who are tops in the Major Leagues this week. Meanwhile, we see the North Siders sliding into the Top 5, supplanting the Arizona Diamondbacks. Check out projections, random observations and Good Links after the jump.

Projected AL Seeds:*

1. New York Yankees (105 - 57)
2. Houston Astros (102 - 60)
3. Cleveland Indians (90 - 72)
4. Boston Red Sox (102 - 60; 1st WC)
5. Los Angeles Angels (90 - 27; 2nd WC)
6. Seattle Mariners (84 - 78; 1st team out)

Projected NL Seeds:*

1. Arizona Diamondbacks (95 - 67)
2. Washington Nationals (92 - 70)
3. Chicago Cubs (92 - 70)
4. Philadelphia Phillies (89 - 73; 1st WC)
5. Atlanta Braves (89 - 73; 2nd WC)
6. St. Louis Cardinals (87 - 75; 1st team out)

*Margin of error (80% prediction interval): +/- 12.8 wins

Comments and Observations:

• The gap in RPScore between the #22 Oakland Athletics and the #23 Detroit Tigers is 38 points wide. That's bigger than the gap between the Tigers and the #30 Kansas City Royals.
• The current projections have the Red Sox needing to play-in against the Angels despite winning 102 games and finishing 12 games up on Los Angeles.
• The Red Sox also project to finish seven games better than every NL squad.
• The Yankees have about a 10% chance of breaking the 2001 Seattle Mariners record of 116 regular season victories.
• The Braves are currently trading 80 points higher than their preseason projection.
• Teams have hit two triples in a game nine times this season. No team has hit three.
• The Cardinals have hit but one three-bagger so far this season.
• The 30 MLB teams last Sunday, May 6, plated a total of 105 runs for an average of seven per game. That's a season low in per-game production.
• The very next day, May 7, saw 14 teams plate 90 runs for an average of 12.9 per game. That's a season high in per-game production.
• That same Monday, winners won by an average of 6.9 runs, a season high in average margin of victory.
• The home team has won 49.5% of games this season with a run differential of -45.

Good Links:

• Alexis Brudnicki went to scout school, is awesome.
• Travis Sawchik finds that teams are valuing pitchers who put a lot of spin on the ball.
• Matt Provenzano is taking the helm at my old stomping grounds, Beyond the Box Score.
• Bill Baer searches for the next member of the 3,000 hit club.
• FanGraphs now posts win distributions with their win projections.