MLB Postseason Projections 2014: Giant Rebound Yields Brand New Series

This post is part of a series tracking the postseason series win probabilities throughout the 2014 MLB Playoffs. Click here to enjoy the full series of posts.

AT&T Park • Photo credit: Eugene Kim • Creative Commons 2.0

In the fourth game of this seesaw series, the San Francisco Giants have evened up the Fall Classic 2-2, putting both teams in nearly the same position where they started, probability wise. With three possible games remaining, the Kansas City Royals maintain a slim lead in World Series expectancy, 52-48.

Despite the Giants' gradually improving Power Score, they are still slight underdogs thanks to Kansas City's home field advantage. Of the remaining three potential games, two will be played in KC. That gives the Royals a 5% home field edge. Without it, had the National League won the All Star Game this past July, the Giants would actually be 53-47 favorites, instead.

Once again, the modal World Series outcome is a Kansas City win in Game 7, but there's a 3-1 chance the Royals can win out and finish it in six. The Giants' best bet is to close the series out before a seventh game; San Francisco has a better chance of winning it in six.

Check back Monday, when one team will be a win away from the Commissioner's Trophy and the other will be a loss away from an offseason of shoulda, woulda, coulda.