Rating Systems Challenge 2012: Survival Model Locks It Up

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The ESPN Simulation Model, which had been performing dismally throughout the tournament, shot up into second place due to its strong performance in the Final Four. This model was the only system among the nineteen that picked both finalists correctly. Every other system, save Sonny Moore, picked 1 Kentucky but not 2 Kansas.

This exceptional rise was not enough to unseat the Survival Model. With Kentucky's advance to the final game, the Survival Model maintained pole position. And it will keep its lead through the finish, as no system has Kansas winning the national championship. As a result, the only possible change in standings is whether the brackets that picked the Wildcats will surpass the brackets that picked UNC, Syracuse or Ohio State.

And so, the final results are just a formality, but be sure to tune in for some final commentary and comparisons with last year's Rating Systems Challenge results.

Rank	System	R64	R32	S16	E8	FF	NCG	Champion	PPR	Total	Pct	Correct
1	Survival Model	250	200	280	240	160	0	Kentucky	320	1130	96.9	74.2%
2	ESPN Simulation Model	220	180	160	240	320	0	Kentucky	320	1120	96.5	64.5%
3	ESPN/USA Today Preseason	230	200	280	240	160	0	UNC	0	1110	96.0	71.0%
4	Jeff Sagarin	230	200	200	240	160	0	Kentucky	320	1030	91.3	67.7%
5	AP Preseason	210	220	280	160	160	0	UNC	0	1030	91.3	67.7%
6	Pomeroy	220	180	200	240	160	0	Kentucky	320	1000	88.7	64.5%
7	LRMC Bayesian	200	180	200	240	160	0	Kentucky	320	980	86.6	61.3%
8	ESPN Decision Tree	210	220	200	160	160	0	Kentucky	320	950	82.7	64.5%
9	ESPN National Bracket	220	200	200	160	160	0	Kentucky	320	940	81.2	64.5%
10	FiveThirtyEight	220	180	200	160	160	0	Kentucky	320	920	77.8	62.9%
11	Pure Chalk	220	220	200	80	160	0	Kentucky	320	880	70.3	64.5%
11	AP Postseason	220	220	200	80	160	0	Kentucky	320	880	70.3	64.5%
13	Lunardi RPI	200	200	240	80	160	0	UNC	0	880	70.3	61.3%
14	Vegas	210	220	200	80	160	0	Kentucky	320	870	67.5	62.9%
15	ESPN CBPI	220	200	200	80	160	0	Kentucky	320	860	65.4	62.9%
15	ESPN/USA Today Postseason	220	200	200	80	160	0	Kentucky	320	860	65.4	62.9%
17	ESPN InsideRPI	200	180	200	80	160	0	Syracuse	0	820	57.0	58.1%
18	Nolan Power Index	190	160	200	80	160	0	Kentucky	320	790	50.7	54.8%
19	Sonny Moore	230	200	200	160	0	0	Ohio St	0	790	50.7	64.5%

*Rank sorted by total points (Total), possible points remaining (PPR) and percentage of correct picks (Correct). "Pct" denotes where the brackets rank among the rest in the ESPN Tournament Challenge.

Rank	System	South	East	West	Midwest	Correct	PPR
1	Survival Model	UK	OSU	MSU	KU	74.2%	320
2	ESPN Simulation Model	UK	OSU	MSU	KU	64.5%	320
3	ESPN/USA Today Preseason	UK	OSU	L'Ville	UNC	71.0%	0
4	Jeff Sagarin	UK	OSU	MSU	UNC	67.7%	320
5	AP Preseason	UK	Cuse	Mizzou	KU	67.7%	0
6	Pomeroy	UK	OSU	MSU	KU	64.5%	320
7	LRMC Bayesian	UK	OSU	MSU	KU	61.3%	320
8	ESPN Decision Tree	UK	OSU	Mizzou	UNC	64.5%	320
9	ESPN National Bracket	UK	OSU	Mizzou	UNC	64.5%	320
10	FiveThirtyEight	UK	OSU	Mizzou	UNC	62.9%	320
11	Pure Chalk	UK	Cuse	MSU	UNC	64.5%	320
11	AP Postseason	UK	OSU	Florida	UNC	64.5%	320
13	Lunardi RPI	UK	Cuse	MSU	UNC	61.3%	0
14	Vegas	UK	Cuse	MSU	UNC	62.9%	320
15	ESPN CBPI	UK	Cuse	MSU	UNC	62.9%	320
15	ESPN/USA Today Postseason	UK	Cuse	Mizzou	UNC	62.9%	320
17	ESPN InsideRPI	UK	Cuse	MSU	UNC	58.1%	0
18	Nolan Power Index	UK	Cuse	Murray St	UNC	54.8%	320
19	Sonny Moore	UK	OSU	MSU	UNC	64.5%	0