Rating Systems Challenge 2012: Introducing the Survival Model

3 Baylor was the lowest seed
to win last night.
Image credit: Wikipedia

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First, let me take this opportunity to correct an omission. I forgot to add a rating system that I was previously aware of, and I am adding it now. The rating system is called the Survival Model. You can read about the model here. It picked Kentucky over Ohio State in the National Championship after defeating Michigan State and Kansas. It's the fifteenth chalkiest bracket (among nineteen).

And, frankly, it's kicking ass.

While the Survival Model does not have an intact Final Four, it has picked some incredible upsets. This model's superb picks include 13 Ohio over 4 Michigan and 11 NC State over 6 San Diego State. It's one of only two models that put Florida in the Elite Eight. This is why the Survival Model is dominating the standings. It's well ahead of Pure Chalk and has a few steps on the preseason polls, which performed well again last night.

Finally, the Survival Model, Lunardi RPI and Pomeroy are the only three systems that predicted 3 Baylor reaching the Elite Eight. Every other system picked Duke, and we all know how that worked out.

Rank	System	R64	R32	S16	E8	FF	NCG	Champion	PPR	Total	Pct	Correct
1	Survival Model	250	200	280	0	0	0	Kentucky	880	730	99.7	75.0%
2	ESPN/USA Today Preseason	230	200	280	0	0	0	UNC	960	710	99.3	71.4%
3	AP Preseason	210	220	280	0	0	0	UNC	960	710	99.3	69.6%
4	Pure Chalk	220	220	200	0	0	0	Kentucky	880	640	89.8	67.9%
4	AP Postseason	220	220	200	0	0	0	Kentucky	880	640	89.8	67.9%
6	Lunardi RPI	200	200	240	0	0	0	UNC	880	640	89.8	64.3%
7	Jeff Sagarin	230	200	200	0	0	0	Kentucky	880	630	85.5	67.9%
8	ESPN Decision Tree	210	220	200	0	0	0	Kentucky	880	630	85.5	66.1%
8	Vegas	210	220	200	0	0	0	Kentucky	880	630	85.5	66.1%
10	Sonny Moore	230	200	200	0	0	0	Ohio St	720	630	85.5	67.9%
11	ESPN CBPI	220	200	200	0	0	0	Kentucky	880	620	81.6	66.1%
11	ESPN National Bracket	220	200	200	0	0	0	Kentucky	880	620	81.6	66.1%
11	ESPN/USA Today Postseason	220	200	200	0	0	0	Kentucky	880	620	81.6	66.1%
14	FiveThirtyEight	220	180	200	0	0	0	Kentucky	880	600	72.7	64.3%
14	Pomeroy	220	180	200	0	0	0	Kentucky	880	600	72.7	64.3%
16	ESPN InsideRPI	200	180	200	0	0	0	Syracuse	880	580	62.4	60.7%
16	LRMC Bayesian	200	180	200	0	0	0	Kentucky	880	580	62.4	60.7%
18	ESPN Simulation Model	220	180	160	0	0	0	Kentucky	880	560	51.6	62.5%
19	Nolan Power Index	190	160	200	0	0	0	Kentucky	880	550	46.3	57.1%

*Rank sorted by total points (Total), possible points remaining (PPR) and percentage of correct picks (Correct). "Pct" denotes where the brackets rank among the rest in the ESPN Tournament Challenge.

Rank	System	South	East	West	Midwest	Correct	PPR
1	Survival Model	UK	OSU	MSU	KU	75.0%	880
2	ESPN/USA Today Preseason	UK	OSU	L'Ville	UNC	71.4%	960
3	AP Preseason	UK	Cuse	Mizzou	UNC	69.6%	960
4	Pure Chalk	UK	Cuse	MSU	UNC	67.9%	880
4	AP Postseason	UK	OSU	Florida	UNC	67.9%	880
6	Lunardi RPI	UK	Cuse	MSU	UNC	64.3%	880
7	Jeff Sagarin	UK	OSU	MSU	UNC	67.9%	880
8	ESPN Decision Tree	UK	OSU	Mizzou	UNC	66.1%	880
8	Vegas	UK	Cuse	MSU	UNC	66.1%	880
10	Sonny Moore	UK	OSU	MSU	UNC	67.9%	720
11	ESPN CBPI	UK	Cuse	MSU	UNC	66.1%	880
11	ESPN National Bracket	UK	OSU	Mizzou	UNC	66.1%	880
11	ESPN/USA Today Postseason	UK	Cuse	Mizzou	UNC	66.1%	880
14	FiveThirtyEight	UK	OSU	Mizzou	UNC	64.3%	880
14	Pomeroy	UK	OSU	MSU	KU	64.3%	880
16	ESPN InsideRPI	UK	Cuse	MSU	UNC	60.7%	880
16	LRMC Bayesian	UK	OSU	MSU	KU	60.7%	880
18	ESPN Simulation Model	UK	OSU	MSU	KU	62.5%	880
19	Nolan Power Index	UK	Cuse	Murray St	UNC	57.1%	880