Rating Systems Challenge 2012: Survival Model a Survivor

2 Kansas upset 1 North Carolina.
Image credit: Wikipedia

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First things first: Jeff Sagarin alerted me to the fact that I made an error in constructing the bracket based on his system. I had him picking UNC to win their region. He actually picked Kansas. The proof is in the post. An error such as this would, obviously, have hurt his system after yesterday's games. In the rankings below I have rectified this mistake. Apologies to my readers and Mr. Sagarin.

Second things second: 1 Kentucky did just what every system expected, while 2 Kansas did what few systems expected, that being advance to the Final Four.

In fact, only five systems put Kansas in the Final Four, while fourteen picked Carolina. Moreover, five had UNC them in the final game and three had them winning it all.

Rank	System	R64	R32	S16	E8	FF	NCG	Champion	PPR	Total	Pct	Correct
1	Survival Model	250	200	280	240	0	0	Kentucky	640	970	99.8	75.0%
2	ESPN/USA Today Preseason	230	200	280	240	0	0	UNC	160	950	99.6	71.7%
3	Jeff Sagarin	230	200	200	240	0	0	Kentucky	640	870	96.9	68.3%
4	AP Preseason	210	220	280	160	0	0	UNC	160	870	96.9	68.3%
5	Pomeroy	220	180	200	240	0	0	Kentucky	640	840	94.0	65.0%
6	LRMC Bayesian	200	180	200	240	0	0	Kentucky	640	820	91.4	61.7%
7	ESPN Simulation Model	220	180	160	240	0	0	Kentucky	640	800	88.1	63.3%
8	ESPN Decision Tree	210	220	200	160	0	0	Kentucky	640	790	86.0	65.0%
9	Sonny Moore	230	200	200	160	0	0	Ohio St	480	790	86.0	66.7%
10	ESPN National Bracket	220	200	200	160	0	0	Kentucky	480	780	83.8	65.0%
11	FiveThirtyEight	220	180	200	160	0	0	Kentucky	640	760	78.8	63.3%
12	Pure Chalk	220	220	200	80	0	0	Kentucky	480	720	67.3	65.0%
12	AP Postseason	220	220	200	80	0	0	Kentucky	480	720	67.3	65.0%
14	Lunardi RPI	200	200	240	80	0	0	UNC	160	720	67.3	61.7%
15	Vegas	210	220	200	80	0	0	Kentucky	480	710	63.2	63.3%
16	ESPN CBPI	220	200	200	80	0	0	Kentucky	640	700	59.9	63.3%
17	ESPN/USA Today Postseason	220	200	200	80	0	0	Kentucky	480	700	59.9	63.3%
18	ESPN InsideRPI	200	180	200	80	0	0	Syracuse	160	660	46.9	58.3%
19	Nolan Power Index	190	160	200	80	0	0	Kentucky	480	630	37.5	55.0%

*Rank sorted by total points (Total), possible points remaining (PPR) and percentage of correct picks (Correct). "Pct" denotes where the brackets rank among the rest in the ESPN Tournament Challenge.

Victories by the Wildcats and the Jayhawks put the Survival Model back into first place, ahead of the preseason polls. Both preseason poll systems picked UNC to win it all. The demise of the Tarheels ended the ESPN/USA Today Poll's (preseason) perfect Final Four.

Finally, yesterday's outcomes significantly boosted the standing of the computerized systems published by Ken Pomeroy and the aforementioned Jeff Sagarin (whose system now occupies third place).

Rank	System	South	East	West	Midwest	Correct	PPR
1	Survival Model	UK	OSU	MSU	KU	75.0%	640
2	ESPN/USA Today Preseason	UK	OSU	L'Ville	UNC	71.7%	160
3	Jeff Sagarin	UK	OSU	MSU	UNC	68.3%	640
4	AP Preseason	UK	Cuse	Mizzou	KU	68.3%	160
5	Pomeroy	UK	OSU	MSU	KU	65.0%	640
6	LRMC Bayesian	UK	OSU	MSU	KU	61.7%	640
7	ESPN Simulation Model	UK	OSU	MSU	KU	63.3%	640
8	ESPN Decision Tree	UK	OSU	Mizzou	UNC	65.0%	640
9	Sonny Moore	UK	OSU	MSU	UNC	66.7%	480
10	ESPN National Bracket	UK	OSU	Mizzou	UNC	65.0%	480
11	FiveThirtyEight	UK	OSU	Mizzou	UNC	63.3%	640
12	Pure Chalk	UK	Cuse	MSU	UNC	65.0%	480
12	AP Postseason	UK	OSU	Florida	UNC	65.0%	480
14	Lunardi RPI	UK	Cuse	MSU	UNC	61.7%	160
15	Vegas	UK	Cuse	MSU	UNC	63.3%	480
16	ESPN CBPI	UK	Cuse	MSU	UNC	63.3%	640
17	ESPN/USA Today Postseason	UK	Cuse	Mizzou	UNC	63.3%	480
18	ESPN InsideRPI	UK	Cuse	MSU	UNC	58.3%	160
19	Nolan Power Index	UK	Cuse	Murray St	UNC	55.0%	480