Rating Systems Challenge 2012: Results after Day One

Today was a great day for polls, chalk, and Jeff Sagarin. After the first day of the Round of 64, we have a six-way tie for first place. No systems have differentiated themselves from the Pure Chalk bracket just yet.

The stories of the night were VCU (12) and Colorado (11) upsetting Wichita State and UNLV, respectively. Among all systems, only the ESPN/USA Today Preseason Poll correctly predicted the VCU upset, while no system expected Colorado to top Las Vegas.

UNC-Asheville (16) seriously threatened the predictive capacities of several systems; seven have Syracuse (1) heading to the Final Four. They were saved when the Orange pulled it out and avoided becoming the answer to a very unfortunate trivia question.

At the behest of friend and former ESPN stat head, Puneet Nanda, we have added an eighteenth system: the ESPN College Basketball Power Index (CBPI). As you can probably discern, it's a power index system with a few tweaks here and there. Compared to the other brackets it is the sixth chalkiest out of eighteen, tied with InsideRPI. CBPI's Final Four is all chalk.

Check back tomorrow for updated results.

Rank	System	R64	R32	S16	E8	FF	NCG	Champion	PPR	Total	Pct
1	AP Postseason	140	0	0	0	0	0	Kentucky	1760	140	97.1
1	ESPN CBPI	140	0	0	0	0	0	Kentucky	1760	140	97.1
1	ESPN/USA Today Postseason	140	0	0	0	0	0	Kentucky	1760	140	97.1
1	ESPN/USA Today Preseason	140	0	0	0	0	0	UNC	1760	140	97.1
1	Jeff Sagarin	140	0	0	0	0	0	Kentucky	1760	140	97.1
1	Pure Chalk	140	0	0	0	0	0	Kentucky	1760	140	97.1
7	LRMC Bayesian	140	0	0	0	0	0	Kentucky	1740	140	97.1
7	Pomeroy	140	0	0	0	0	0	Kentucky	1740	140	97.1
9	AP Preseason	130	0	0	0	0	0	UNC	1760	130	82.3
9	ESPN National Bracket	130	0	0	0	0	0	Kentucky	1760	130	82.3
9	Lunardi RPI	130	0	0	0	0	0	UNC	1760	130	82.3
9	Sonny Moore	130	0	0	0	0	0	Ohio St	1760	130	82.3
9	Vegas	130	0	0	0	0	0	Kentucky	1760	130	82.3
14	ESPN Decision Tree	130	0	0	0	0	0	Kentucky	1740	130	82.3
14	ESPN Simulation Model	130	0	0	0	0	0	Kentucky	1740	130	82.3
16	ESPN InsideRPI	120	0	0	0	0	0	Syracuse	1740	120	56.1
16	FiveThirtyEight	120	0	0	0	0	0	Kentucky	1740	120	56.1
18	Nolan Power Index	110	0	0	0	0	0	Kentucky	1740	110	29.3

*Rank sorted by total points (Total) and possible points remaining (PPR). "Pct" denotes where the brackets rank among the rest in the ESPN Tournament Challenge.

Image credit: Wikipedia