Shutdowns and Meltdowns

In search of a count stat for relievers that moves beyond the arbitrary nature of saves, blown saves and holds, David Appleman at FanGraphs devised two stats called Shutdowns (SD) and Meltdowns (MD), based on Win Probability Added. A reliever who posts a WPA of 0.06 or higher receives a shutdown, whereas a reliever who posts a WPA of 0.06 or lower receives a meltdown.

I like it because of its simplicity and its consistency in explaining what relievers are supposed to do, that is shut down the game and prevent meltdowns (if there's a lead), or provide the offense with a chance to win the game (if there isn't). All the baseball stat nerds are writing a piece on this, so I thought I would do some of my own analysis. Here's my version of Erik Manning's "Fun with Shutdowns and Meltdowns" (linked in the first paragraph; data from FanGraphs, of course).

Most Net Shutdowns (SD - MD) since 2008

Name	Games	WPA	WPA/LI	SD	MD	Net SD	Net SD%	SV	BS
Mariano Rivera	196	12.69	6.01	105	18	87	44.39%	117	5
Francisco Rodriguez	208	6.56	2.72	110	24	86	41.35%	131	20
Joe Nathan	192	9.69	4.93	96	16	80	41.67%	115	14
Francisco Cordero	208	3.06	1.21	103	26	77	37.02%	114	19
Carlos Marmol	233	9.21	4.93	103	29	74	31.76%	27	8

Fewest Net Shutdowns

Name	Games	WPA	WPA/LI	SD	MD	Net SD	Net SD%	SV	BS
Jason Grilli	159	-1.05	1.4	27	31	-4	-2.52%	2	2
Luis Ayala	163	-5.26	-1.41	33	37	-4	-2.45%	10	11
Cla Meredith	214	-3.38	-1.16	39	42	-3	-1.40%	1	14
Brian Bass	95	-1.2	-1.57	18	20	-2	-2.11%	1	1
Brian Stokes	149	-1.75	-0.54	23	23	0	0.00%	1	5

Best Net Shutdown Rates (SD - MD / Games)

Name	Games	WPA	WPA/LI	SD	MD	Net SD	Net SD%	SV	BS
Mariano Rivera	196	12.69	6.01	105	18	87	44.39%	117	5
Joe Nathan	192	9.69	4.93	96	16	80	41.67%	115	14
Francisco Rodriguez	208	6.56	2.72	110	24	86	41.35%	131	20
Joakim Soria	170	11.1	4.42	84	16	68	40.00%	91	11
Brian Wilson	166	4.12	1.34	88	25	63	37.95%	91	15

Worst Net Shutdown Rates

Name	Games	WPA	WPA/LI	SD	MD	Net SD	Net SD%	SV	BS
Jason Grilli	159	-1.05	1.4	27	31	-4	-2.52%	2	2
Luis Ayala	163	-5.26	-1.41	33	37	-4	-2.45%	10	11
Brian Bass	95	-1.2	-1.57	18	20	-2	-2.11%	1	1
Cla Meredith	214	-3.38	-1.16	39	42	-3	-1.40%	1	14
Brian Stokes	149	-1.75	-0.54	23	23	0	0.00%	1	5

Some interesting facts pop up when we look at these new stats. First off, I think it's safe to say that GMs and fantasy owners should stay away from Grilli, Ayala, Bass, Meredith and Stokes. Second, SD pretty much confirms the general consensus about who the greatest relievers in the game happen to be, with Mo Rivera leading a pack that also includes K-Rod, Joakim Soria and Joe Nathan. Carlos Marmol's appearance on this list seems to make the best case for the new stat. We all know he's a very good reliever, but having few chances to save he got very little credit for his efforts. Fret no more, Carlos.

Tango at Inside the Book paraphrases Bill James when he points out that the best new stats are part confirmation, part surprise. Tango shoots for 80% confirmation as a confirmation threshold. Personally I think that seems high, but perhaps I'm just a risk-taker. What kind of confirmation are we looking at with SD and MD?

When I regress Shutdown Rate (SD - MD / Games) as a dependent variable against Save Percentage (SV / SV Opportunities), I see an R^2 of 0.5292, which works out to a correlation (R) of about 73%. Raw SV and SD correlate at about 76%. I'd say that's pretty close to Tango's 80%. Graphs illustrating the relationship between the old and new stats are posted below.

(Photo Credit: CNNSI)