Alas, fate has intervened in the form of Butler and Virginia Commonwealth University. Due to improbable late round upsets, not a single one of the rating systems we're following here managed to pick the winner in an Elite Eight game. Of course, that means that none of them have any possible points remaining in the Final Four or National Championship game.
Exciting tournaments make for boring math.
Here are the final standings for the various systems. The only numbers that will change from here on out are the percentiles, and they'll only sink further.
RNK | ENTRY | R64 | R32 | S16 | E8 | FF | NCG | CHAMPION | PPR | TOTAL | PCT |
1 | ESPN National Bracket | 220 | 200 | 160 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 580 | 79.8 | |
2 | FiveThirtyEight | 250 | 200 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 570 | 76.4 | |
2 | Pure Chalk | 250 | 200 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 570 | 76.4 | |
4 | Vegas | 210 | 200 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 530 | 58.2 | |
5 | Nolan Power Index | 230 | 200 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 510 | 48.5 | |
5 | Sonny Moore | 230 | 200 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 510 | 48.5 | |
7 | Pomeroy | 260 | 200 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 500 | 43.7 | |
8 | Lunardi RPI | 220 | 180 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 480 | 34.0 | |
8 | NCAA Official RPI | 220 | 180 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 480 | 34.0 | |
10 | Jeff Sagarin | 230 | 200 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 470 | 29.6 | |
11 | Preseason AP Poll | 240 | 140 | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 460 | 25.4 | |
12 | LRMC Bayesian | 250 | 160 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 450 | 21.5 | |
13 | ESPN Decision Tree | 230 | 160 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 430 | 14.7 |
Woe is he who picked his bracket by scientific formula, this year.
Image credit: Wikipedia
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